Become an Ambiguity Absorber: Leading in Uncertain Times: 2026 Update
The article argues that ambiguity has intensified since the pandemic, making a leader’s ability to absorb uncertainty essential for organizational health. “Ambiguity absorbers” shield teams from noise, translate complex external pressures into clear priorities and help people stay focused despite constant change.
The piece outlines four common leadership responses to uncertainty—two ineffective and two productive—and explains why 2025’s challenges, driven by geopolitics, economic volatility and rapid AI regulation, require stronger clarity from leaders.
It then offers practical guidance for how leaders can absorb ambiguity through clear context, shorter decision cycles, structured experiments and customer-centered thinking. A 2026 plan highlights aligning costs, strengthening regional strategy, improving governance and maintaining leadership development. Ultimately, ambiguity absorbers do not eliminate uncertainty—they prevent it from overwhelming the organization so teams can continue creating value.
Become an Ambiguity Absorber: Leading in Uncertain Times: 2026 Update
In 2021 I wrote an article about the overwhelming impact of ambiguity on businesses during the pandemic and proposed that leaders become ambiguity absorbers so that employees could have enough certainty to continue to work effectively. I was proud of the article because it was republished in Forbes as it proposed a solution to a challenge occurring during the pandemic. At the time, I thought Covid created extreme problems of ambiguity. As I look forward to 2026, Covid seems not nearly as dense as current conditions- complexity and ambiguity keep stacking up. A leader’s ability to create the conditions where employees are able to contribute in spite of all the ambiguity is a critical leadership skill.
Leaders know what to do when signals are clear: grow the business or cut costs. The hard part now is leading when almost nothing is clear. Trade rules change quickly, technology moves faster than laws, and international tensions can disrupt supply chains, prices, and hiring with little warning. In 2025, uncertainty is constant, not occasional.
Because of this, CEOs and senior teams worry a lot about trade conflicts, political tension between major powers, cyberattacks, and disruptions in energy and raw materials. These issues show up in everyday work as delayed orders, higher costs, sudden policy changes, and pressure to learn new skills. To keep people focused and hopeful, leaders need to become “ambiguity absorbers” who take in confusion and send out clarity.
What is an ambiguity absorber?
The basic idea is simple. An ambiguity absorber is a leader who absorbs noise and distraction from their teams so they can focus on the work that matters most. Instead of letting every headline or rumor ripple through the organization, the leader translates big, vague risks into a small number of clear priorities.
When leaders do not do this, people either freeze and wait for instructions or rush into scattered activity that is not connected to strategy. Ambiguity absorbers avoid both extremes. They do not promise certainty. They offer direction, honest assumptions, and a way to move forward together even when the future is still blurry.
Four ways leaders respond to uncertainty
When the environment is unclear, leaders tend to choose one of four paths:
1. Orderly inaction
People wait for perfect information or for senior leaders, regulators, or markets to “settle.” The problem is, in a world of constant elections, tariffs, and policy shifts, things rarely settle for long. Waiting becomes falling behind.
2. Chaotic action
People launch many uncoordinated projects and experiments, hoping something works. This can waste money, confuse customers, and burn out employees because there is no clear learning process and no shared direction.
3. Middle managers differentiate themselves if absorb ambiguity
When enterprise guidance is incomplete, middle leaders have huge opportunity to step up. They make clear assumptions about customers, competitors, and risks. They set local priorities, define small experiments, and explain why they are choosing this path. This keeps teams productive instead of anxious. It also surfaces real‑world insight that can help shape top‑level decisions.
4. Senior leaders as ambiguity absorbers
This is the most powerful option. Senior leaders look at the big picture—geopolitics, regulations, technology, and the economy—and turn it into a short list of “no‑regret” moves and a few scenarios. They explain what is known, what is assumed, and what would cause them to change course. When they disappear into long planning meetings without sharing this, they increase stress and confusion. When they stay visible and transparent, they create confidence and energy.
Healthy organizations use both the third and fourth paths. Senior leaders update the shared story and guardrails. Local leaders apply that story to their context and make smart choices without waiting for constant approval.
What is different about 2025
The leadership work is like past crises, but the content of the uncertainty has changed. Three areas dominate:
Geopolitics and trade
Trade conflicts, sanctions, and new rules for investment and technology are changing where and how companies can operate. Leaders must think in terms of regions and blocs, not just a single global market. This affects where to build, source, and sell.
Economic uncertainty
Growth expectations are modest. Interest rates, public debt, and policy choices make planning more complex. Leaders must fund transformation—especially in technology and skills—while staying cautious about costs and cash.
Technology, AI and regulation
Countries and regions are taking different paths on AI rules, data privacy, and security. Some push hard for innovation, others for strict control. At the same time, AI is transforming productivity, business models, and jobs. Leaders must use AI to compete while managing legal, ethical, and reputational risks.
For employees, all of this feels like constant change: reorganizations, new tools, shifting roles, and questions about where and how they work. Ambiguity absorbers connect these big forces to a clear purpose and a simple set of “this is what it means for us” messages, so people are not left to worry on their own.
How to act as an ambiguity absorber
Leaders who absorb ambiguity well in 2025 tend to do five things consistently:
1. Share clear context, not just data
They explain how external events affect the business model, not just report numbers. They say, “Here are the key trends, here are the assumptions we are making, and here is what we will watch.” This helps people understand the logic behind decisions.
2. Decide in shorter, regular cycles
Instead of betting everything on an annual plan, they use rolling plans with set review points. They make smaller bets, check them often, and adjust as new information arrives. This reduces fear of being “wrong” and encourages learning.
3. Design the decision process
They are clear about who decides what, especially in cross‑cutting areas like geopolitics, cyber risk, AI, and supply chain. They know when to involve risk, legal, technology, and local leaders, and how those voices shape the final call.
4. Start with external stakeholder criteria
They ground decisions in customer impact, competitive position, financial resilience, and legal and regulatory limits. They do not let internal politics or habits dominate. In practice, this means asking: How does this affect our customers? How does it change our risks? What does it do to our ability to invest and grow?
5. Treat actions as structured experiments
In uncertain spaces—new markets, AI solutions, climate‑related moves—they frame the work as pilots with clear goals, measures, and time limits. The aim is fast learning, not perfection. Wins can scale; losses become cheap lessons.
They also pay attention to emotion. They acknowledge that people feel tired, worried, or frustrated. They normalize this but then reconnect teams to purpose and progress: “Here is what we are trying to achieve. Here is what we have already learned. Here is what happens next.”
A practical 2026 plan for senior leaders
Senior leaders who want to absorb ambiguity for the whole business can focus on five practical areas:
1. Align costs and investment with reality
- Test the portfolio and cost structure against different trade, growth, and policy scenarios.
- Protect investment in critical capabilities—data, AI, key talent, and distinctive customer experiences.
- Remove unnecessary layers and processes that slow decisions without adding value.
2. Keep the customer at the center
- Understand how your customers are being hit by uncertainty, and design offerings and services that help them manage it.
- Train frontline and digital channels to respond with empathy, clear information, and proactive communication when things go wrong.
3. Sharpen your position in a multipolar, AI‑driven world
- Decide which regions and ecosystems matter most and what local adaptations are required.
- Be explicit about what in your strategy is fixed (purpose, distinctive capabilities) and what is flexible (channels, partnerships, footprint).
4. Align teams and governance
- Create regular, joined‑up discussions where business, risk, policy, and technology leaders align on priorities.
- Translate complex scenarios into simple narratives and guardrails that local leaders can act within.
5. Maintain development and resilience
- Keep investing in leadership and capability building, even under pressure to cut- this is where conversations about broader concerns and challenges surface.
- Focus development on leading through uncertainty, using AI responsibly, working across borders and functions, and managing stress and hybrid work.
When leaders become strong ambiguity absorbers, they do not remove uncertainty—but they keep it from overwhelming the organization. Teams can then spend less time worrying about what might happen and more time creating value, serving customers, and building the capabilities needed for whatever comes next.